Winter 2007
In This Issue:
Focus On Energy
Energy at the Crossroads
Energy by Rockwell Kent — Courtesy, Earth and Minerals Science Museum, The Pennsylvania State University
In November of 2006, a report by the head of the British Government Economics Service, Sir Nicholas Stern, made headlines around the world. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change called for immediate and massive investment to forestall an environmental disaster that the report said could be as costly for the 21st century as the two world wars and the great depression were for the 20th century.
As an economist rather than a climate scientist, Stern's warnings made an impact on the general public in language we could all understand. The report made clear that global climate change is a problem that will affect every person on the planet, not just those who happen to live in costal or arid regions. In some of the worst case predictions, the cost of doing nothing could result in a 20 percent reduction of global GDP, with poorer countries bearing a disproportionate amount of the cost.
Climate scientists have told us that the pollution we pump into the atmosphere today will be with us for 100 years or more. Even if emissions remain at current levels, the report states, we will reach double the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2050. That level could be reached by 2035 as demand for energy and transportation increase around the world. Beyond that level of greenhouse gases, we are in uncharted territory.
A Second Crisis Looms
If the potential for as many as 200 million climate refugees fleeing drought and floods does not constitute an urgent wake-up call, then consider the report by Robert Hirsch, an energy expert for SAIC, a San Diego-based independent research firm, prepared for the Department of Energy and published in February 2005. In it Hirsch describes the consequences of the peaking of world oil production, that point at which oil production reaches its high point and beyond which production begins to quickly decline.
The report states that “…the problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society. Oil peaking will create a severe liquid fuels problem for the transportation sector…” The problem will not be temporary. A crash program will take 10 to 20 years to mitigate the worst effects of peak oil, according to the report. Yet, we are unlikely to have that much warning.
Currently, less than one-tenth of total U.S. annual energy consumption comes from renewable energy sources, and the majority of that is from hydroelectric power, which has already been well exploited. Only 2.2% of our energy consumption is supplied by solar cells, wind farms, corn ethanol, cellulosic biomass, hydrogen fuel cells, or the other much-discussed possibilities for renewable energy.
If current trends continue, nuclear power plants, which currently supply about 20% of U.S. electricity needs, will decline to about 15% of electric generation by 2030, according to the Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook (2006). This downward trend could change with regulations favoring the speeding up of nuclear plant construction. This same DOE report shows an ever growing demand for oil and natural gas. The need for improved processing of fossil fuel production and refining will therefore remain an important factor in research in the near future.
In order to meet the increased energy demands of the 21st century, which are expected to more than double by 2050, and maintain or reduce current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, major resources will need to be committed to research and development in a variety of renewable energy solutions, as well as in the cleaner and more efficient use of fossil fuels. Fortunately, the public, government, and industry are beginning to appreciate the magnitude of the energy and climate crisis. Whether the response is massive and timely enough remains to be seen.
Penn State Responds to the Energy Challenge
In 2006, Penn State responded to this “perfect storm” of energy-related challenges with the creation of an intra-university Energy Task Force to develop a strategic vision and a roadmap for energy science and engineering at Penn State. The report makes the observation that Penn State has retained strong energy research activities, unlike many other major research universities where alternative energy research programs folded along with the era of cheap oil in the 1980s and '90s.
Among the Energy Task Force recommendations is the creation of a Penn State Institute of Energy Sciences and Technology at the same level as Penn State's other premier institutes, to provide national leadership in areas in which Penn State has proven strengths and to fund research in areas of developing energy technology. As an interim step, the University has merged two existing research organizations: The Energy Institute, located in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, and the Institutes of the Environment, an interdisciplinary organization that focuses on challenges of major societal importance connected to the environment. Together, these two institutes make up the Penn State Institutes of Energy and the Environment (PSIEE).
